Do not underestimate the predictability of stupidity

Last weekend my friend locked my cat into the fridge for a (short) while. Don’t ask me why. But do you know what the cat said when I finally opened the door to the fridge?

… no? really?

Cats do not speak. It meowed.

Try telling someone that they need to answer some questions quickly. Then point quickly to five clearly white objects, or at the same white object five times, each time asking “What color is this?” Then, after your chosen somebody has answered “White” five times, quickly ask: “What does the cow drink?” 9 out of 10 times the answer will be “Milk”.

The purpose of these tactless anecdotes is to show you should not underestimate the predictability of stupidity. I’m not saying 9 out of 10 people believe that cows drink milk (they drink water). My point is that people often act and/or speak before they think. This is a dangerous combination, especially when there is gambling involved.

A more relevant example:

You find a Blackjack table and start wagering your $100, $20 at a time. You win the two first times, giving you a total bankroll of $160 and decide to double the stakes. Then you lose $40, three times, leaving you with $40. You decide to let it all ride and the dealer gives you a five and six (11 total) and a six for herself. Your 11 against the dealer’s six is the best possible Blackjack scenario in which to double the stakes with, but you didn’t leave enough chips so you take another card without doubling, a six, giving you 17 whereas you stay. The dealer then reveals an ace to herself, giving her 17 also. She takes your money and starts dealing a new round.

WTF? You ask.

“Dealer wins if same hand as player” she says, handing you a leaflet that explains the house rules.

Conclusion: Read the rules first!

The proposed scenario describes only one of the seven deadly sins of Blackjack. You can read the rest of them here.